Monday, March 30, 2009

The Keys to the Car are Greg's

I know there has been a lot of talk the last few weeks about drafting a RB, but I really don't see that happening. I think that's option C or D for the Saints. I think they have 2 defensive players that they are comfortable taking at 14. If those are gone, I think we try to trade down. If we can't and Beanie is there, I think we take him -- but that scenario is unlikely and I just don't see it happening. In general, I feel that Loomis and Payton will give Greg Williams the keys to the car in the first round (this season), because I think that they think they just can't get the defense wrong AGAIN. Williams' success should be very important to them -- more important than drafting "Deuce's replacement." If that's true, take a look at the following:

From 1997 - 2008, Greg Williams has had 11 first-round picks (out of 12 drafts). 8 of the 11 first-round picks have been spent on defense:

1997 -- Kenny Holmes (DE, Miami) 18th pick, average career - no longer playing.
1999 -- Javon Kearse (DE, Florida) 16th pick, we know him -- was pretty good
2000 -- Kieth Bulluck (LB, Syracuse) 30th pick, know him too -- ditto
2001 -- Nate Clements (CB, Ohio State) 21st pick, I know, I know...
2004 -- Sean Taylor (S, Miami) 5th pick, May he rest in peace
2005 -- Carlos Rodgers (CB, Auburn) 9th pick, Aweseome 2nd year, got hurt in 2007
2007 -- Laron Landry (S, LSU) 6th pick, Is he any good?
2008 -- Derrick Harvey (DE, Florida) 8th pick, Mediocre / poor start last year. Will start in '09.

A total of 3 DE's, 2 CB's, 2 S's, and 1 LB were drafted be Williams-led defenses.

He really had some good defensive picks from 1999 - 2001 (and many of them were late first rounders). Recently, he's had success too, but admittedly, it's hard not to when you've picked in the top 10 four of the last five years.

Based on the above info, it looks like he drafts defensive personnel to do two things:

1.) Pressure the passer (3 DE's drafted), and 2.) Cover a lot of ground (i.e. speed) in the secondary (4 S/CB drafted). That could rule Jenkins out, since he's a bit slower and Williams seems to have drafted true safeties and true corners in the past -- I could also be reading too much into it that. The sample size is admittedly small. Secondly, there is a possibility that we go after a tweener OLB/DE that can rush the passer like Aaron Maybin or Brian Orakpo -- especially when you consider that both of our starting DE's are staring 4 game suspensions in the face. But then again, we just signed Paul Spicer to pair with McCray and Savage, so that route also seems unlikely. Williams' draft history suggest players like cornerback Vontae Davis and safeties Louis Delmas and William Moore are more likely picks. They all have speed and play true safety/corner positions. However, the moves we have made suggest that we have already filled needs at those 2 positions (Greer and Sharper) and should target an OLB in the draft.

I think I return to my original assumption that an OLB seems most probable (i.e Cushing). Although, based on Williams draft history, Davis and Delmas won't go away -- and I am not so sure they should.


AllSaint said...

Are we certain Heath Evans was brought in to be a "big" short-yardage back? If not, Beanie may be more plausible.-

JustaCoastie said...

2Gs my friend... DC GreGG Williams. I'm here to help.