Mickey, I hope you are listening. In 2006, you demonstrated how to get five starters in one draft when you brought us Faine, Harper, Jahri, Hollis, and Colston. But how many did you get last year? If you’re willing to listen, I’ll show you how to get four more:
Step 1: Burn last year’s draft strategy
Not much explanation needed here. Last year, only one rookie even saw the field (sorry, but Marvin Mitchell’s spot duty on the sideline doesn’t count, nor does Meachem’s running routes with Steve Smith before the Panthers game).
Step 2: Trade up for Sedrick Ellis
Most scouts agree that there are six elite players in this draft. They also agree that there is a significant dropoff in talent after those six. Ellis is the last of the elite six, and due to team needs, he is the one player who most analysts project to slide slightly in the draft. He also happens to fit the Saints’ glaring need at defensive tackle, and would be a starter on day one. Most mock drafts have the Bengals selecting him at #9 on draft day. So, we will need to trade up to get him.
As my friend Duncan discussed, the Ravens are one possible trading partner. I would also suggest that the Patriots could be an even more likely candidate. The Patriots, moreso than anyone else, make a living on trading down on draft day to ensure proper value for their picks. With the loss of Asante Samuel to free agency, the Patriots are likely to target corners. Of the two teams drafting after the Patriots, only the Ravens are at all likely to be in the market for a corner (the Bengals drafted Leon Hall in the first round last year). And because there are two or three corners with the same draft grade, the Patriots can get their guy at #10 just as easily as at #7.
So, what would it take to get Ellis? Most teams use a draft value chart that assigns a certain number of points to each pick (see
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html for an example). For those of you who have never seen this, the chart shows that our #10 pick is worth 1300 points, whereas the Ravens #8 pick is worth 1400 points, and the Patriots #7 pick is worth 1500 points. So, if we are trading based on this chart, the Saints have to provide somewhere between 100 and 200 points of value to move up. This is roughly equivalent to giving either team our 3rd round pick (220 points) and receiving their 4th round pick (86 or 45 points for the Ravens’ or Patriots’ picks, respectively) in return.
Step 3: Trade for Lito Sheppard
Lito Sheppard, the Pro Bowl corner for the Eagles, is a name we will begin to hear more frequently as the draft nears. Since the Eagles signed Asante Samuel in free agency, Sheppard has become expendable. Trade talks have seemingly died down since the start of free agency, but the Saints did show interest in him after we lost out on the privilege of paying Asante Samuel $9 million per year.
Coincidentally, the Saints have made this kind of trade with the Eagles before, in 2006 when we acquired Hollis Thomas for a 4th round pick. Mickey, let’s work out another one of these draft day trades. Sheppard, like Hollis, is a former pro bowler for the Eagles whose production has dipped in recent years. However, like Hollis, he is still a solid football player, and would create a formidable cornerback tandem with McKenzie.
The Deangelo Hall trade gave us some indication of the trade market for corners. Oakland gave a 2nd and 6th round pick to Atlanta in a trade for Hall. But Hall has his best years ahead of him and has always been rated higher than Sheppard. I don’t think we can get Sheppard as cheaply as we got Hollis Thomas, but I do think the Eagles would strongly consider an offer to flip-flop 2nd round picks and receive the Saints’ 4th rounder (the one we obtained from the Ravens or the Patriots, see above). The temptation for Philadelphia to gain an extra 4th round pick while also moving up 9 spots in the 2nd round to target whatever receiver inexplicably slips out of the first may be too much to pass up.
Step 4: Draft Deuce’s replacement in Round 2
Sorry, Deuce, I love you as much as any Saints fan does, but you are too valuable to us. So valuable that when we lose you in the middle of the season, our running game is completely shot.
This is a deep draft at running back, and that means we will get good value by picking one with our second round pick (acquired from the Eagles in the trade proposed above). My dream scenario is that Jonathan Stewart slips to us because of concerns over his turf toe injury, but that is probably not realistic. Alternatively, a big back, like Forte, would fit in nicely. Running backs historically make easy transitions to the NFL and contribute immediately. A between-the-tackles runner, like Stewart or Forte, would crack the starting lineup right away.
One caveat here: with this pick, one of the top three tight ends (Dustin Keller, Fred Davis, and John Carlsen) would also provide a big boost to our offense. Don’t rule this out, especially considering how often Brees throws to tight ends and how much interest the Saints showed in Ben Troupe and Jeremy Shockey this offseason.
Step 5: Pray for Vilma’s knee
The trade for Jonathan Vilma is just like drafting a Mike linebacker with our 4th round pick, but has more upside than any linebacker we would choose in round 4 (think Fincher and Cie Grant from previous drafts). Obviously, this move comes with its fair share of risk, given that Vilma suffered a season-ending knee injury last year, and didn't look good in Eric Mangini's 3-4 alignment prior to that. I suspect a move back to his familiar 4-3 will help him regain his pro-bowl form of 2006. Regardless, Vilma is an immediate starter and an enormous upgrade over Mark Simoneau, who had 70 tackles last year as a middle linebacker. No that’s not a typo – 70 tackles as a middle linebacker. Compare that to Vilma’s 169 tackles (124 solo) in 2005, and you see what kind of impact he can have.
There it is, Mickey: five simple steps to provide us with upgrades at each level of our defense (D-line, linebacker, and secondary) and to revitalize our once fearsome running game. Best of all, this strategy still leaves you with picks in rounds 5, 6, and 7 to take flyers on small school prospects and build depth. One thing I would ask, Mickey, is that you keep checking back with my column as the draft approaches; I will expand on each of these steps, so we can avoid another debacle like last year.
