Who Dat Fantasy: The Rookie Running Back Gems?

We at WhoDatSay don’t know too much about superdelegates, economic stimulus plans, the crisis in Darfur, or even life in general. But, if there is one thing other than Saints football that we do know something about, it’s fantasy football. It’s never too early to start thinking about that day in late August when you and 10 or so other dudes will gather at Hooters, with the last place finisher from the year before dressed in a full suit to announce each pick in his best impression of Roger Goodell. Likewise, it is never too early to think about how the NFL draft affected the stock of your favorite rookie running backs.

The Rookies as a Class

Going into the draft, I was excited about one, and only one, rookie running back. This guy has speed and athleticism to burn. He has big play ability. He can cut on a dime. He showed so much fantasy promise – and then he was drafted by the Steelers. That’s right. I’m not talking about Darren McFadden. I’m talking about Rashard Mendenhall. Unfortunately, the guy went to a team that already has a solid starting running back and a solid fantasy football option, Fast Willie Parker. I had dreams of getting this guy on the cheap while other teams were drafting big name rookies like McFadden or proven, reliably mediocre guys like Willis McGahee. Not anymore. True, Mendenhall still has some value, and has even more in a keeper league. The Steelers have always been a traditional, pound-the-rock football team, and Mike Tomlin will not stray far from that mentality. But are you willing to wait for Fast Willie to be phased out?

This was the theme of the entire rookie draft class. All the running backs I was excited about before the draft seemed to go to teams where they will be in a bad situation or will be under-utilized due to a widespread trend of teams’ moving to committee back systems. And the one team, the Jets, that I thought would present a great situation for a running back, did not draft one. What if McFadden or Mendenhall were running behind D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Alan Faneca, and Nick Mangold? No such luck. If there is a silver lining, though, it’s that the moron in your fantasy football league, who severely over-drafted an over-the-hill, 31-year old Curtis Martin and watched as he became a top-5 running back, won’t blindly stumble upon one of the gems of this draft class. Those of you looking for help in keeper leagues won’t find too many gems here:

Buddon’s Top 10 Rookie Running Backs

1. Kevin Smith, Detroit

I cannot tell you how much it pains me to pick a Detroit running back as the top back of this class. I am well aware of the history of flops at running back Detroit has witnessed, Kevin Jones chief among them. But look at his situation: a defense-minded head coach with a new offensive coordinator committed to running the football, two stud wide receivers to prevent the defense from loading the box, and a new first-rounder on the offensive line. The best part: he only needs to beat out Tatum Bell for the starting spot. Smith is the only rookie worth taking in the top 20 running backs.

2. Darren McFadden, Oakland

This is a guy whom I would never draft because he will, without a doubt, be over-drafted. I do not see Adrian Peterson in McFadden. I see Reggie Bush. He will make his team better overall in a way similar to what Reggie did his rookie year, but his fantasy numbers will never live up to the hype. He has speed and explosiveness, but he has a tiny lower body and doesn’t break many tackles. He is not going to get the goalline carries, and he’s on a team without much of a passing threat. That said, his production in college can’t be ignored.

3. Matt Forte, Chicago

After Cedric Benson gets cut for doing something all red-blooded Americans do (drinking beer on a boat), Forte will be the feature back in Chicago. With newly drafted first-round left tackle, Chris Williams, that could be a good thing. But that’s only if Rex Grossman can get the oh-so-tricky center-quarterback exchange down pat.

4. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina

For the first time in 6 years, I actually do believe in the Carolina running game. They have recently invested a great deal in the offensive line, addressing it in the first and second rounds of the draft the last two years. Steve Smith’s big play ability has always made it difficult to load the box and Muhammad, although old and slow, is a reliable and steady target who will further open up the box. Stewart has the workout warrior numbers, but will he be able to unseat Deangelo Williams as the starter? If there’s one thing John Fox has done, he’s stuck with veteran running backs (see Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster) longer than he ever should have. Expect numbers about 10-20% better than Williams’ rookie numbers.

5. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh

Mendenhall simply has too much talent to be held down. A little bit like Peterson last year. Everyone said Chester Taylor would be the starter, and that Peterson would get, at most, half the carries. People will say the same about Mendenhall. Mendenhall would have had a Peterson-like impact if he had gone to Minnesota last year. He’s that talented, in my opinion. However, overtaking Willie Parker will be more difficult than overtaking Chester Taylor. Expect Peterson-lite.

6. Steve Slaton, Houston

This guy is the sleeper of the draft class. His skill set is perfect for new offensive coordinator Alex Gibbs’ zone-blocking scheme. With Kubiak and Gibbs, the Texans now have the two masterminds of the Broncos’ plug-in-the-supermarket-clerk-and-generate-100-yard-rusher offense of previous years. With old-timer, Ahman Green, and fat guy, Ron Dayne, as the only competition, expect Slaton to take over the starting job in midseason and to put up 1,000 yards rushing.

7. Ray Rice, Baltimore

As I alluded to earlier, Willis McGahee is consistently mediocre. If you pick McGahee, you better follow up quickly with Ray Rice. The Ravens, who drafted Ray Rice in the 2nd round and Allen Patrick in the seventh, obviously aren’t overly enamored with McGahee. As far as talent goes, Rice is one of the more underrated running backs in this draft class. As a smaller back who runs with power, he could end up being a nice sleeper on the level of Maurice Jones Drew.

8. Felix Jones, Dallas

Jones was an enigma for me. He’s fast and can hit the home run, but how many carries will he get? I would expect some big games from Jones and some very poor outings as well. He will be the kind of fantasy running back who is good enough to keep around, but inconsistent enough to dash your hopes at the most inopportune time.

9. Chris Johnson, Tennessee

We’re really starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel here. Johnson has incredible speed at 4.24 in the 40, but he doesn’t seem to fit the smash-mouth philosophy Jeff Fisher employs. I think he will see some spot duty, but will not win the starting job from Lendale White or Chris Henry, both of whom the Titans drafted in the second round of the two previous drafts. At best, he will get 12 carries per game with about 8-10 going to each of Lendale White and Chris Henry. I wouldn’t draft him.

10. Ryan Torain, Denver

Picking Torain is like a box of chocolates -- you never know what running back Denver will strut out as the starter. And then again, you never know if that guy is the next Terrell Davis or Reuben Droughns. As a fantasy football manager, I don’t trust Mike Shanahan, but that might be exactly why you pick Torain over Travis Henry. If you pick Torain, make sure you have 3-4 better options already on your roster.