Fantasy Love / Hate: Running Backs

Due to the fact that Saints training camp is still a month out, I thought it would be good to get a jump start on fantasy football.

Currently, I play in 4 leagues: a dynasty league, a customized keeper league (easily my favorite), a "normal" league, and an auction league. In the coming weeks I will give you 3 players from each position that I love and hate heading in to the 2008 season. At first I wanted to write about my thoughts on every player, but for now, I thought it best to limit myself. Admittedly, it's a little early. Players' roles are sure to change as we move through training camps around the league and committee approaches will be clearer then, but this should serve to get the ball rolling as you begin to think who you want to target.

Some people I love/hate will be taken in the first round, some people will be taken much later. This is not a ranking, but merely my suggestion if a certain player is being overvalued or undervalued relative to his early suggested draft position by other major publications. And as always, I will rarely present the obvious -- that will be left to everyone else. I'm going to dig deep baby!

So here it goes:

Running Backs I Love (i.e. think are undervalued):

1.) Joseph Addai (COLTS) -- No, this has nothing to do with the fact that I'm a rabid LSU fan. Largely speaking the two top ranked RB's heading in to the 2008 season are L.T. for his past efforts and A.P. for his obvious potential. However, I have concerns about each. Addai is the running back I want. He is entering his 3rd year in Tom Moore's offense and Payton Manning trusts him immensely. The reason Addai was able to succeed as a rookie was because he excelled in pass protection. That hasn't changed and as a result Addai will stay on the field early and often. Sure, the Colts signed Dominic Rhodes to a one year deal after Oakland released him -- why wouldn't they -- he knows the offense and will be asked (along with Mike Hart) to spell Addai. Neither is a threat to Addai as a primary ball carrier, but each will ensure Joe is fresh until the end. Top that off with the fact that the Colts are less likely to sit their players at the end of the year (see Patriots / Giants week 17 matchup for confirmation) and Addai is primed to be your #1 ball carrier. Most fantasy owners will drool at the opportunity to take L.T. or A.P. with the first or second pick (and others will love to have Westbrook or Jackson at #3), but give me the # 4 overall, and I will gladly pluck Addai and add him to my roster.

2.) Maurice Jones-Drew (JAGUARS) -- Admittedly, I hated this guy last year and wanted nothing to do with him. I was right -- he still was involved in a time share with Taylor and I just wasn't certain that he was the real deal. Well one year later, I am. Jones-Drew is proof that big things come in small packages. I usually hate small backs in fantasy because I think they are less likely to get the goal-line carries. For some reason, the little jaguar is different. He's like a balling ball with legs, yet (amazingly) he still has the top-end speed to hit the homerun. Goal-line carries: check. Homerun ability: check. Excellent pass-catcher: check. Good O-line: check. Fragile Fred: check. Fred Taylor made many dumb owners look intelligent last year when he held up and produced at an elite level in his time-share with MJJ. He won't do it again. Either this year or next, Fred will be out of the NFL, and MJJ will be a top 5 fantasy back.

3.) Selvin Young (BRONCOS) -- Ok, I know this one is bound to get quite a few raised eyebrows, but hear me out. Last year, Shanahan had done something he never had done before. He signed a quality starting RB in free agency named Travis Henry. At the time, Henry was coming off a banner year in which he rejuvenated his career with the Tennessee Titans. The experts said he would be the perfect fit for Denver's one-cut, zone-blocking scheme. Unfortunately for Henry, he is now out of a job, as Selvin Young proved more productive and reliable. I know all of you will say that to gamble with a Bronco back is madness -- they can never be counted on, right? Well maybe this time you can. Even Shanahan knows when he's being too cute. Sure, he signed Michael Pittman as veteran insurance and Pittman may see the field on third downs. But I just have a feeling that Shanahan is finally ready to stop his annual game of musical running backs. You and I both know that no one will touch Selvin in the early rounds because of the perceived risk (and certainly there is some there). But if I told you he has a great chance to be the most consistent back Denver has had since Clinton Portis, would you not "steal him" in round 4? I would.... and I will.


Running Backs I hate (i.e. think are overvalued):

1.) LaDanian Tomlinson (CHARGERS) -- Let me explain. Heading in to last year, I had Larry Johnson in my Keeper league. Because of the wear and tear he had from the previous 2 seasons (and admittedly for a few other reasons), I chose to trade him. In my three other leagues, I privately declared that, under no circumstances, would I draft him or Rudi Johnson (I figured Rudi, too, was due for an injury). How do you think that decision turned out? Larry Johnson went away, Randy Moss and Adrian Peterson (whom I acquired with the #1 overall pick I received in the L.J. trade) joined my team. For what it's worth, I finished 3rd. The guy I traded with actually finished 2nd, but it had nothing to do with Larry Johnson -- he actually rode Braylon Edwards (who he grabbed with my 2nd-round pick that he received from me in the same trade) and Jamal Lewis into and through the playoffs. The trade actually helped both of us, but I bet if he had to do it over again, my friend would not have given away the rights to Peterson and Randy Moss for a guy who had so much mileage.

With that in mind, let's get back to why I hate Tomlinson this year. Fantasy Football is all about value, and L.T.'s will never be any higher. In every league, he should be no worst than the #2 overall pick, and for good reason. Take a look at his production since 2001.

2007 G -16 Att -315 Yds -1474 Td's - 15
2006 G -16 Att -348 Yds -1815 Td's - 28
2005 G -16 Att -339 Yds -1462 Td's - 18
2004 G -15 Att -339 Yds -1335 Td's - 17
2003 G -16 Att -313 Yds -1645 Td's - 13
2002 G -16 Att -372 Yds -1683 Td's - 14
2001 G -16 Att -339 Yds -1236 Td's - 10

Totals: G-111 Att-2365 Yds-10650 Td's-115

Certainly, that's incredible. Tomlinson has rattled off 7 straight years of elite production. However, with that production comes mileage, and in Tomlinson's case, a ton of it. Since 2001 his legs have accrued 10,650 yards on 2,365 carries without a single injury... until last years' playoffs. Tomlinson, like all of the other great ones before him, will hit a wall. Will it be this year? or next? My bet is that it will be one or the other. Drafting him #1 overall with the expectation that he will be the bedrock of your team is risky business. If you get the #1 overall pick, what should you do? Trade back to 3 or 4 and draft Addai -- trust me.

2.) Larry Johnson (CHIEFS) -- I hated him last year, and I hate him again this season. What's changed? He still has Brody Croyle behind center which means another season of constant 8 and 9 man fronts. Sure, Branden Albert will help the O-line, but the unit will still be one of the worst in the NFL. At least they brought in Jamal Charles as a change of pace back to spell Johnson, but that hardly indicates a return to glory for L.J.. His ceiling will be 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns this year. For someone that's projected to be a top-10 back, that's pathetic. The chiefs offense of 3 years ago is a distant memory, and so is L.J.'s status as an elite fantasy back.

3.) Jonathan Stewart (PANTHERS) -- Many expect this rookie to come in and, by the end of the year, stake claim to Carolina's running back position. Out of all the rookies I would draft (McFadden, Mendenhall, Forte, Smith), Stewart is the last. It's not so much that I don't trust him, although he still is limited with the foot injury. It's that I think John Fox is a moron. I truly believe he is one of the most unintelligent coaches in the NFL. Every year, Fox changes his mind about what type of running attack he wants to have. Two years ago, it was a "pound it" philosophy. Then when he realized that D. Foster and D. Williams couldn't handle the role as a between-the-tackles runner, he ditched his power running game for a "zone-blocking" scheme. Then when Foster stunk it up again, he decided to go back to his "power" running style of offense that made him successful when Stephen Davis was there (and he drafted Stewart and Jeff Otah to help in that regard). Problem is, that even with Otah, the Panthers' O-line still isn't very good. What's more cause for concern is that Fox has publicly stated that he wants his new "power back" to return kicks, too. Even if Stewart beats out Williams for the lions' share of the carries, I'll save my late-round flyer or early keeper/dynasty-league pick on someone else.

Next week I will look at wide-receivers and will tell you why Greg Jennings coming out party will be alot like Michael Clayton's... one and done.

If anyone has fantasy football thoughts or questions you would like us to post or answer, send an e-mail to whodatsayteam@gmail.com.