Wednesday, April 9, 2008

5 Steps to a Black and Gold Supa Bowl: Draft Sedrick Ellis

Mickey, as I promised in my last article, I am trying to help you avoid the disaster that was last year’s draft. So, I will continue to expand upon the steps that I laid out in last week’s article, 5 Steps to a Black and Gold Supa Bowl.

After you burn last year’s draft strategy – and possibly fire a few scouts, I want you to draft Sedrick Ellis. Admittedly, it is starting to sound like I have a man-crush on the guy, but for good reason. Other than Glenn Dorsey, he is the one defensive player who we can pencil in as an immediate starter. The other obvious candidates on defense are Keith Rivers (linebacker, USC), Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (cornerback, Tennessee State), Leodis McKelvin (cornerback, Troy), and Derrick Harvey (defensive end, Florida). Rivers would instantly upgrade our athleticism at linebacker; but we signed Dan Morgan, who we plan to play at outside linebacker in an effort to limit the number of hits he takes in the box. If healthy, Dan Morgan is a Pro-Bowl caliber linebacker. I would like to give that investment a chance to pay dividends before going after a first round linebacker. As for Rodgers-Cromartie and McKelvin, they are both small-schools corners, who have yet to prove that they can play with the big boys. That’s a serious gamble to take with a top-10 pick. Furthermore, rookie corners rarely play well and often need a red-shirt year as quarterbacks do. Lastly, Derrick Harvey is a great player, but would rarely see the field, playing behind Charles Grant, Will Smith, and Bobby McCray.

Not only would Ellis fill an immediate starting position, but he also happens to be one of the “Big Six.” Most scouts agree that there are six elite players in this draft. They also agree that there is a significant dropoff in talent after those six. However, due to varying team needs and Ellis’s skill set, most analysts project him to be drafted outside of the top six picks. Ellis, like Dorsey, is a penetrating defensive tackle better suited to a 4-3, whereas a large space eater like last year’s Alan Branch is better suited to a 3-4. Luckily for us, the Jets at #6 and the Patriots at #7 run 3-4 schemes, so there is the possibility that Ellis will slip. Unfortunately, the Bengals, who pick at #9, have an obvious gaping hole at DT, a hole they were unable to fill during the offseason because of failed trades for Shaun Rogers and Dewayne Robertson. Fortunately, though, the Bengals could not have tipped their hand any more if Marvin Lewis had hung a billboard on Airline Drive imploring the Saints not to trade up.

And that is good news, Mickey, because now we know that we need to trade up in the draft to get our guy. As I discussed in my last article, the Ravens and Patriots seem to be willing trade partners and would likely accept a deal where we give up our 3rd round pick and receive the other team’s 4th round pick in return. What makes this scenario even more likely is the abundance of rumors indicating that the Ravens desperately want to trade out of the #8 pick.

When Roger Goodell announces that the Saints, with that #8 pick, have selected Sedrick Ellis, why should you high-five your buddy instead of booing like a Jets fan at Radio City Music Hall? After all, a defensive tackle is usually fat, slow, and rarely make plays without assistance. But remember that a good defensive tackle, such as Sed Ellis, who commands a double team on nearly every play, makes the entire defense better, particularly the linebackers. We went out and got a highly athletic and productive linebacker in Jonathan Vilma; but given our current defensive line, without a player who commands a double team, Vilma will be forced to fight off offensive guards or centers on any run play. Moreover, the one knock on Vilma is that he is slightly undersized and therefore struggles at times to get off blocks. Thus, it is that much more important to protect him with a good defensive tackle. Look at what Ellis has done for Rey Maualuga, USC’s middle linebacker. Sure, the guy has a ton of talent, but by all accounts, he does not play technically sound football. Ellis’s presence inside, though, allowed him to fly to the football, using his athleticism and hard-hitting style without having to be overly concerned with fighting off other blockers. Maualuga would have been a consensus top-10 pick had he declared for the draft this year. But my bet is that Maualuga will regret his decision to return for his senior season. With Ellis's departure, he will find it more difficult to play his style of downhill football without that dominant DT eating up blocks.

With the relative weakness of the NFC South, the easiest way to make the playoffs is to win our division. Thus, the old mantra to “build your team to win in its division” has never held more true. Recent trends in the NFC South show that every other team has begun aggressively bolstering their interior offensive lines, drafting interior linemen early, in the second rounds. Last year, Tampa Bay and Atlanta drafted, respectively, Arron Sears and Justin Blalock, two of the three top-rated guards in last year’s draft. Carolina drafted Ryan Kalil, last year’s top-rated center. And, painful as it was, Tampa signed center Jeff Faine away from the Saints. What better way to counteract this aggressive spending on interior offensive lines than to draft an elite defensive tackle?

Sean Payton recently said that he is taking a cue from the Super Bowl Champion Giants in terms of maintaining momentum going into the playoffs. Mickey, take a cue from them and stack our defensive line with talent.


3 comments:

ctalati32 said...

nice breakdown.

only point I'm not sure about is if Cincy will draft a CB with the departure of Henry they might look to trade down and get a WR

NolaDome said...

Agreed, the move to make in this year's draft is to trade up and get Ellis..

With that being said I do think that if the trade costs us more than a switch of picks and a 3rd rounder it would not be worth it.

Rivers seems like a WLB who could deliver an immediate impact and start. Dan Morgan on the other hand is purely a 1 yr risk. I would like to see him contribute, but I think we will be lucky to get eight games out of the man.

The problem is that our DT's are good enough to skate by this year, but after that it would be a very weak position on the team. I would love to trade up and grab Ellis, but I just think that the FO might be content with drafting a #10 like Rivers or a CB (DRC,McKelvin) and going after Kentwan Balmer in the 2nd.

The best move this team could still make in the draft is to trade out of the #10 spot and switch picks with Philly for Lito Sheppard. This way we get #19 for Kenny Phillips, Mike Jenkins, maybe Ryan Clady. Who knows Rivers could fall to #19 if a premium falls on OT's in the draft...

Anonymous said...

Totally agree. Ellis is 97% as good as Dorsey and doesn't have 40 pounds of hardware on his knees.