5 Steps to a Black and Gold Supa Bowl: Draft Deuce's Replacement

With the final installment of my series, 5 Steps to a Black and Gold Supa Bowl, I leave you, Mickey, to make the dream a reality this weekend.

Given the type of offense that Sean Payton runs and given the current stable of running backs, the reality of the matter is that the Saints must get a big young running back, or chances are they will end up paying a hefty price in the middle of the 2008 season. Sure, we are all glad Deuce McAllister restructured his contract to remain with the team; he is, after all, a fan favorite and vital locker room veteran. However, because of injuries suffered in the past three years, Deuce’s production has waned to the point where it's difficult to trust that our beloved workhorse will remain healthy for an entire season. Deuce recently had surgery on his left knee to repair a torn anterior cruciate ligament, plus microfracture surgery on his right knee to stimulate cartilage growth. That means two surgically repaired knees for a running back who has already been in the league for 7 years. That's some serious stuff, people, and it begs the unpopular question, "Are Deuce's best days behind him?" Mickey, if you are smart, you will see the writing on the wall and draft a big young running back this weekend.

Although coaches and team executives have repeatedly praised Deuce for his value to the team both on and off the field and are publicly rooting for Deuce to make a full recovery, they should privately be making plans to bring in Deuce's eventual replacement. I realize that for many that's a tough pill to swallow. But I advise that you look at the issue without your emotional glasses and understand the reality of the Saints running back situation. Deuce has been in this league for 7 years. That's seven years of running into a massive NFL lineman, getting knocked down, and getting back up just to do it again on the next down. The average shelf life of a starting NFL running back is 4 years, and Deuce is already 3 years on the wrong side of that number. Do I think he's capable of coming back and producing at his pre-injury level? Sure. Will he get hurt again? Maybe not. Do I like the odds that either is true? No, I don't.

In Deuce's first four years with the Saints he averaged 4.7 yards per carry. In his last three – 3.9 yards per carry. In Deuce's first four years he played in an average of 15 games per season. In his last three – 7 games. In two of the past 3 years, he suffered season-ending knee injuries. Based on the last three years, it looks as if Deuce has about a 66% chance of ending the season on the trainer's table. If you don’t think it’s fair to use such a limited sample size, I would take a look at how he injured his knee last year: he jumped up to catch a pass. He wasn’t hit, he didn’t perform some unworldly athletic feat. He just jumped and landed. Injuries from things like that simply do not happen to 21-year-old running backs. Add to that the fact that he now has problems with both knees instead of just one, and I’d say it’s almost certain that Deuce will not make it through an entire season. Is that the type of percentage we want to continue to bet our ground game on?

I know many will say that we have Reggie Bush, Aaron Stecker, and Pierre Thomas to carry the load should the inevitable befall Deuce. The problem with those three is that NONE is the bowling-ball type back that can pick up the tough yards when we need them. I think it's obvious by now that Bush cannot. Stecker, too, is more of a change-of-pace back at 5'10", 215lbs, and is far from a long-term answer. Pierre Thomas, who only boasts 1 career rushing touchdown, is even lighter than Stecker – Thomas weighs 210lbs.

While NFL running backs don’t have to be as big as the Giants' Brandon Jacobs (6'4", 264lbs.), the Saints' reserves pale in comparison to other top NFL big backs: St. Louis' Stephen Jackson is 6'2", 230lbs; Kansas City's Larry Johnson is 6'1", 230lbs; Miami's Ronnie Brown is 6'0", 232lbs; Minnesota's Adrian Peterson is 6'2", 220lbs. Even those not tabbed as "power backs" like LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshawn Lynch, and Fred Taylor all top the scales at over 220lbs.

To be a "tough runner" is not enough in the NFL. I can run with as much effort as Rocky and never convert a short yardage opportunity because I'm simply not big enough. A healthy Deuce is so productive at moving the chains on third and short because he is 6’1”, 232 pounds. And because our offense is essentially a ball-control offense that is predicated on putting together long drives, rather than quick hits, we often find ourselves in 3rd and short. There is a reason our offense ranked 4th in total yards, but only 13th in points per game. It’s because we put together those long-drives that gained lots of yards, but often found ourselves stalling on 3rd downs.

Luckily, the 2008 draft is stocked with running backs, several of whom can tote the load between the tackles. If Jonathan Stewart (5'10", 236lbs.) would fall into the 2nd round due to concerns over his injured toe, the Saints would be wise to grab him. Not often, if ever, will you find a back that size that can run a 4.38 in the forty. Talk about Thunder and Lightning. A future backfield of Stewart and Bush would be downright unfair.

If Stewart is already gone by the time the Saints pick in the second (and I think it’s likely he will be), another option is Tulane running back Matt Forte. Forte, who is 6'1", 221lbs and is as chiseled as Reggie Bush, has been quietly popular among scouts. Chicago, Detroit and Houston, along with several other NFL teams, have visited with the former Tulane standout and all are showing serious interest. The Saints too had Forte in for a private workout earlier this month, and I could not fault Mickey for pulling the trigger on him later in the second round – provided we trade down a few spots and acquire an extra pick or player. I would hate to visit Detroit in Week 16 with a running game spear-headed by Bush, Stecker and Thomas as Forte, dressed in silver and blue, rips us for the century mark.

Lastly, Mickey, if you choose not to go that route, then I hope you will at least consider former Tiger, Jacob Hester in a later round. If there's one thing Hester (5'11", 230lbs.) has proven, it's that he can pickup a 1st down even if the entire defense knows he's going to get the rock! Look no further than this video to see what big plus tough equals (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRJczt7YZF4). That is the kind of attitude and toughness our running game lacked after Deuce went down, and I would be surprised if our running game has it for the whole year if we do not draft Deuce’s replacement.