Smart Money is on Sedrick

Heading into the draft, everyone knew the Saints needed to focus on defense. Although it appeared the Saints had many options with the #10 pick, from all indications, Glenn Dorsey was the player the Saints were really after. Although we didn’t get Glenn Dorsey, and the LSU homers will never admit this, it looks like the New Orleans Saints may have actually made out better by drafting Ellis.

When Kansas City was on the clock at pick #5, I’m sure many Saints fans out there (including myself) were expecting Roger Goodell to announce a trade that involved the Saints. While I am sure the Saints tried their best to work out a deal with Kansas City in order to move up to the #5 pick, a deal could never be reached. The Saints later admitted they offered the Chiefs this year's first-round selection, #10, next year's first-round pick, and this year's seventh-round pick to move up to #5 and take Glenn Dorsey. According to the draft pick value chart that the teams use to determine the value of trades, the package that the Saints offered was worth considerably more than the #5 overall selection. Because a deal could never be reached, the Chiefs drafted Dorsey. Rather than panicking, Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis focused all of their attention on the only other dominant defensive tackle in this draft, Sedrick Ellis. They quickly found that New England was willing to deal out of the # 7 spot. And with that, the fans of the black and gold nation became ecstatic, and Sedrick Ellis became a Saint at pick #7… and this move may have been a miracle in the making.

If the Saints had traded up with the Chiefs, they would have no 1st round draft pick next year. While most Saints fans hope and believe next year’s pick will be late in the 1st round, that pick is still extremely valuable. This year, that pick would have easily landed any team Jeremy Shockey or Lito Sheppard. Last year, a fourth round pick landed Randy Moss for the Patriots. Trading away your only first round pick is always a huge sacrifice.

The Saints front office got the best deal available on Saturday. Not only did they trade up in front of the Cincinnati Bengals, who would certainly have drafted Ellis, but in doing so, the Saints only had to give up their third round pick (No. 78) in exchange for a fifth-round selection (No. 164). While Ellis wasn’t ranked quite as high as Dorsey, make no mistake about it: Ellis is an excellent addition to the New Orleans Saints defense, and a legitimate stud. Ellis and the rest of the defensive line in New Orleans will provide fits for such division rival running backs as Ernest Graham, Michael Turner, and Jonathan Stewart. Drafting Ellis automatically adds a day one starter and a huge upgrade at the defensive tackle position. Unlike Jonathan Sullivan, who the Saints traded up to draft and who turned out to be a major bust, Ellis is pretty close to a sure thing as possible. Plus, Ellis is being reunited with the same position coach who recruited him to USC and coached him for two years in college, Saints defensive line coach Ed Orgeron. That means Ellis will already have a good rapport with Orgeron, will have an immediate comfort zone coming into the NFL, and will not have much of a learning curve while adapting to the professional game. Having the same coach in the NFL will make the transition that much easier and make Ellis immediately serviceable.

The Saints also added the defensive tackle for a lot less of a price tag than Dorsey would have cost. While Dorsey’s contract will be in the neighborhood of $62 million over 6 years with all its incentives, Ellis’ contract will peak out under $50 million over the same 6 years, saving the Saints a possible two million per year. The Saints currently have starters making less than that. Rather than trading up to acquire Dorsey, the Saints are getting at least the second best defensive tackle who has never had injury concerns, they’re saving millions of dollars with the salary cap, and they have their 2009 first round draft pick. Dorsey would have to outperform Ellis by leaps and bounds in his career to be worth the extra draft picks and salary cap hit.

Based upon the high opportunity cost associated with acquiring Dorsey, the Saints made the right move in the 2008 draft in taking Ellis, a move that should pay substantial returns on a much smaller investment than Dorsey would have been.